Alberta separation issue draws ‘powerful’ voice in Jason Kenney, with Wab Kinew offering out-of-province view, say strategists

Former Alberta premier and early 'remain' supporter Jason Kenney is a “powerful” voice in his ability to reach conservatives on the topic of Alberta separation, say party strategists, while the effectiveness of Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew, another prominent anti-secession voice, is drawing mixed reactions.

“I think there's a lot of nuance in both Jason Kenney and Wab Kinew, and the impact that they have in the debate, specifically within the boundaries of Alberta, and then the broader national context,” said Evan Menzies, a vice-president at Crestview Strategy, whose previous roles in the Alberta legislature include serving as director of communications for both the Wildrose Party and the United Conservative Party (UCP).

“I think for conservatives, a voice like Jason Kenney is powerful because a lot of conservatives were timid and shy to get involved in the debate, and Jason Kenney was definitely one of the first early on to make a definitive statement for Canada," he said.

A referendum will be held on Oct. 19 for Alberta residents to vote on questions pertaining to immigration and constitutional reforms, as well as whether they want the province to remain in Canada, or to conduct a second referendum on secession.

Prominent critics against separation include Kenney—one of the founders of Alberta’s UCP—who has argued it would be an “economic catastrophe” for the province to leave the federation. During an interview with CBC News’ Power & Politics on May 26, Kenney said that a large number of Albertans—himself included—have been frustrated with federal policies, but added that one of his “absolute red lines” when he formed the UCP was a constitutional commitment to federalism.

Menzies argued that, early on, some Conservatives may have found the Alberta separation issue divisive, and may have not wanted to give “too much oxygen to the debate,” but Kenney was “early out of the gate,” in speaking up after the threshold of signatures was reached on a petition to move forward with the referendum question.

“I think he was just willing to make the case earlier. I think there were other Conservatives who didn't want to give too much oxygen to the other side and didn't want to give them too much attention,” said Menzies.

Another vocal critic of Alberta separation is Kinew, who, in late May, publicly urged Alberta Premier Danielle Smith to pause the fall referendum “for a year or two,” to allow time to focus on national unity and major infrastructure projects, including pipelines.

Kinew and Smith clashed over the separation movement and the duty to consult with Indigenous nations, during the Western Premiers’ Conference in Kananaskis, Alta., on May 26. During the conference, Smith said that the duty to consult with Indigenous groups should be applied to major projects, but that the courts need to decide whether that duty should apply to a citizen initiative petition. Kinew, who is Anishinaabe, quickly contested Smith, saying, “I think we know that is not correct, a lot of what you said there, Premier Smith,” adding that “It is not up to the petition gatherers to fulfil the duty to consult. It is up to you, as the Alberta government, to fulfil the duty to consult.”

On June 17, the Assembly of Treaty Chiefs (AOTC) of Treaty 6, Treaty 7, and Treaty 8 unanimously passed a resolution calling for the RCMP and the auditor general to investigate Smith and members of the UCP for treason.

“We call for this investigation on the basis of the intentional violation of the Treaties; of calling a referendum in the face of severe risks to Canada’s sovereignty and the Treaty Relationship and of failing to take action on the violation of privacy rights of millions of people," said the AOTC in a June 17 press release.

"Further, Premier Smith and the UCP government have done all this with significant risks of foreign interference and influence."

Smith responded to the AOTC resolution by saying it is “disgraceful that any government that wants to be taken seriously would level charges that serious against another government,” as reported in CTV News on June 17.

When asked about Kinew, Menzies said Smith has made a good case for Indigenous consultation, but added that “if the goal is to have as large a ‘stay’ vote as possible, I'm not sure he's helping.”

“For Canadians, I think the premier's a very good political communicator, and … I think a lot of Canadians gel and resonate with his message, and he's caught a bit of a populist wave behind that,” said Menzies of Kinew.

“He's helping empower and mobilize some voices there, but if the greater question on Canadian unity is how can we make sure that the … ‘Let's keep working within Canada’ voters get the highest voter turnout at the end of election day, I think there needs to be a little bit of message-tuning.”

“I'm not sure he's catching that wavelength inside of the province of Alberta correctly, but that's not to say he hasn't been effective in other ways,” Menzies added.

Conservative strategist Cole Hogan, who also managed Kenney's digital advertising election campaigns in 2019, told The Hill Times that the former premier is effective in communicating his message because of his political background.

“As a former premier and an MP for an Alberta riding for 20-plus years, [Kenney] has some seniority on the file and can definitely speak to the issues that would obviously happen if Alberta was to become an independent state, in terms of military passports, First Nations, the economy, interprovincial trade, [and] the railways. There's all sorts of concerns here, and Kenney's well-versed with those, so I think he has been effective,” said Hogan.

“I think you will see this summer some sort of event where you have speeches from known federal conservatives making the case for a united Canada. That will be the tail end of the work that Jason Kenney started, I think.”

'You need that external-to-Alberta voice pushing for ‘remain,’' says Crestview's Ali

When it comes to Kinew, Garry Keller, a vice-president at StrategyCorp and a former chief of staff to then-Conservative foreign minister John Baird, told The Hill Times that he isn’t surprised the premier would speak up about the issue of separation, but called his comments during the Western Premiers’ Conference “largely unhelpful.”

“The way [Kinew] did it, in going to the Western premiers meeting and trying to embarrass [Smith] in a media conference, it probably scored some points at home in Manitoba, and may have scored some points with progressives across the country, but it don't think it did any good in Alberta, and I certainly don't think it necessarily helped the Alberta NDP out in any way, shape, or form,” said Keller.

“I thought that approach … it felt like he was trying to score points for the socials for the TikTok rather than actually to be a helpful voice.”

In contrast, Cam Holmstrom, founder of Niipaawi Strategies and a former NDP staffer, said Kinew’s clash with Smith on May 26 brought the issue of duty to consult “front and centre” in a way that was “very constructive.”

“I think that needs to part of the conversation that absolutely needs to be heard,” said Holmstrom.

“Let's just be real: [duty to consult] were things that were sidelined in past national conversations, especially when you saw it in Quebec during the two actual separatist referendums that happened there, right? The voices of First Nations were totally sidelined.”

Back in May, separatist group Stay Free Alberta submitted a completed petition to the Elections Alberta office aiming to force a provincial vote on the province leaving Canada. Justice Shaina Leonard threw out the petition on May 13, ruling that the government failed in its duty to consult with First Nations before initiating a process that could alter foundational treaty rights. The Alberta government is currently appealing the decision, with Smith criticizing the ruling as “anti-democratic.”

Holmstrom said that Kinew is in a unique position as the first First Nations individual to be the premier of a Canadian province.

“To me, to have someone like Premier Kinew in that position to say, ‘Look, you can't ignore this. As much as you may want to ignore it, you cannot,’ I think it's good for the conversation, because it's not like Danielle Smith is listening to First Nations leaders or Métis leaders in her own province. If she was, the courts wouldn’t have had to intervene when they did.”

Muhammad Ali, a partner at Crestview Strategy and a former Liberal staffer, told The Hill Times that Kenney holds a lot of credibility as a former premier.

“I'm not always the first to defend Jason Kenney, but I think Jason Kenney's perspective as being the Alberta premier is like, ‘Hey, I need to defend the biggest economic driver in my province [oil and gas], and I'm having trouble achieving that,” said Ali.

“He can advocate for the need for this and [about] not getting a fair share from the federal government, but also feel that Alberta still benefits from being part of the federation. He is Canadian first, so that sort of synergy is important.”

In regard to Kinew, Ali argued the Manitoba premier’s voice is important as someone outside of Alberta.

“It's important that the outside-of-Alberta-voices all show a unified, ‘We want Alberta to remain’ voice because if you start seeing people like, ‘Oh no, just leave,’ well, that just fuels the separation movement further in Alberta,” said Ali.

“You do need that external-to-Alberta voice pushing for ‘remain,’ so people like Premier Kinew should be, and other premiers should be doing that, along with other prominent voices around Canada.”

At least eight former Conservative MPs who've spoken with The Hill Times said they are backing the potential separation of Alberta from Canada—including Rob Anders, who represented the riding of Calgary West from 1997 to 2015; Eric Lowther, who represented the riding of Calgary Centre from 1997 to 2000; and Jay Hill, a former minister in Stephen Harper’s cabinet who served as a Reform, Canadian Alliance, and Conservative MP between 1993 to 2011.

Anders identified several policy areas in which he believed Ottawa should grant Alberta greater autonomy, including judicial appointments, property rights, firearms licensing, and environmental regulations, and argued Alberta could save as much as $12-billion annually by collecting its own corporate taxes, and administering its own pension plan and employment insurance system, as reported in The Hill Times on June 15.

jcnockaert@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times