Liberal lead over Conservatives could show ‘crack in the armour’ depending on U.S. trade talks outcome, say strategists, pollsters

The lead Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals hold over the Conservatives is in part attributable to whom Canadians most trust to address looming tariff threats from the United States, although pollsters and strategists have mixed views on how significantly that lead could diminish if Ottawa doesn’t land a favourable trade deal when the dust settles.

Right now, "the primary lens" used to judge the party leaders is connected to how U.S. President Donald Trump and the American relationship are managed, said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, adding that Canadians believe Carney (Nepean, Ont.) can do a better job on this front.

“[Carney’s] political fortunes and the political fortunes of the Liberals hinge on the trade deal with Donald Trump. If he has a good trade deal, he'll be able to continue to ride his honeymoon [phase]," Nanos added. 

The clock is ticking down to an Aug. 19 deadline when 50-per-cent duties are expected to kick in on more than $20-billion worth of Canadian exports, including goods that are supposed to be protected by the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). On Aug. 13, The Globe and Mail reported that Janice Charette, Canada's chief trade negotiator to the U.S., informed American trade representative Jamieson Greer during a meeting the previous week that if the new tariffs are implemented, the move would represent a “cliff” that risks halting talks.

Nanos told The Hill Times that although current polling data shows Carney ahead of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre (Battle River—Crowfoot, Alta.), that gap could narrow depending on the outcome of these trade negotiations. Nanos said that, since the last federal election, Canadians are more likely to trust Carney to “manage” Trump, but, so far, there hasn’t yet been a trade deal with the U.S. against which the prime minister can be judged.

“I think one of the things that's actually quite critical is that we should not think that just because Mark Carney has a significant advantage today, that it will continue,” said Nanos.

“For the Liberals, they've got to be very careful because this advantage that they're currently riding is built on hope that Canadians have that Mark Carney can deliver, and if he doesn't deliver, and if the trade agreement is not as positive as many Canadians hope, if it's viewed as a capitulation, then these numbers can turn around. These numbers can turn around fast.”

Top issues among Canadians include economic concerns and Canada-U.S. relations, with the Liberals leading federal ballot tracking at 45.6 per cent, followed by the Conservatives at 29.1 per cent, according to Nanos Research data released on Aug. 11.

A federal projection released by The Writ on Aug. 10 showed a vote projection of 45.1 per cent for the Liberals, and 33.3 per cent for the Conservatives.

On Aug. 10, data released by Leger showed that, among decided voters, 46 per cent support the Liberals, 34 per cent support the Conservatives, and eight per cent support the NDP.

The poll also presented six policy positions where Carney’s Liberals and Poilievre’s Conservatives broadly share similar objectives—even if their proposed approaches were somewhat different—and asked respondents how much they trusted each leader on that issue. The issues included speeding up the execution of major infrastructure and energy projects, allowing fewer immigrants into the country, and growing the energy sector while still making meaningful progress on climate change commitments.

Carney was trusted more than Poilievre on each issue, by a lead ranging between nine to 14 percentage points. Both leaders received their lowest trust ratings on negotiating a trade deal with the U.S. that may require Canadian concessions (50 per cent for Carney, and 38 per cent for Poilievre).

“Liberals have to remember that when they're looking at these really strong Carney numbers. The challenge for the Liberals is their numbers are so high that, realistically, they can only go down,” said Nanos.

Renegotiated CUSMA would put Carney on 'thin ice': Joe Jordan

Jordan Paquet, vice-president of Bluesky Strategy Group and a former staffer to then-Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper, told The Hill Times that the outcome of the bilateral trade talks could impact Carney’s perceived trustworthiness with Canadians, but "it would be like a crack in the armour at that point."

“I think Canadians, obviously, will give a lot of leeway to somebody that's dealing with the Donald Trump administration because they are tough to deal with. But at some point, [Carney’s] going to have to deliver,” said Paquet.

“If he can't deliver, it's going to be one more issue that will cause Canadians to take a second look and say, ‘Is this really what we what we voted for? We voted for the guy that we thought was going to get the job done, and he's having difficulty doing that so far.’”

Pollster Greg Lyle, president of the Innovative Research Group, told The Hill Times that he doesn’t expect the current trade talks to have a noticeable effect on Carney’s popularity at first, but may become more significant in the medium-to-long term.

“We've asked people about this, and people say they don't really think it's likely that we're going to get a deal. And if we do get a deal, they don't trust Trump to keep it,” said Lyle.

“If I'm Carney … I'd be worried about significant direct impacts of the trade war as Canadians start to lose jobs, and some Canadians have. And I'd be worried about [artificial intelligence], where that's coming from. And again, if I was the opposition parties, I would be looking for a longer-term play, like taking positions today that will serve them well in two or three years.”

Joe Jordan, a former Liberal MP who served as a parliamentary secretary to then-prime minister Jean Chrétien and is a senior associate at Bluesky Strategy Group, told The Hill Times that Carney was elected “against the political winds of the day,” and that those conditions haven’t yet dissipated.

“Carney came on the scene with an extremely impressive resumé, and at a time when Canadians were genuinely concerned … of the implications of what the Donald Trump administration might end up doing to the trade relationship, which would then impact economics at every level,” he said.

“Canadians have, I think, invested in Carney a little bit, and I think there might be some ownership there. I think there's a genuine hope among Canadians that Carney will do well because if Carney does well, they will do well.”

When it comes to “handling” Trump in negotiations related to trade and CUSMA, Jordan said Carney’s first plan should be to maintain the current North American trade pact. A renegotiated CUSMA would put Carney on “thin ice,” according to Jordan.

“I don't think Canadians have an appetite for anything that looks like we are giving concessions to [Trump],” said Jordan. “[Carney] was not elected to do that. He was elected to grab the steering wheel and take Canada through this crisis. I’m very skeptical that they could find a renegotiated CUSMA that would play politically in Canada. Good luck.”

How the CUSMA talks play out, along with Ottawa’s efforts at trade diversification, will define Carney’s legacy, as well as his future potential for re-election, Jordan added.

Muhammad Ali, a partner at Crestview Strategy and a former Liberal staffer, told The Hill Times that he doesn’t expect the outcome of the trade negotiations to be a make-or-break moment for Carney, arguing that the perceived difficulty of securing a deal with Trump will give the prime minister some leeway in how his performance is evaluated.

“Ultimately, there's no hunger or desire for change right now because what people are craving is sort of being addressed right now. Has it been solved yet? No, but I think people are seeing attempts towards it being addressed, and this includes, obviously, the situation with Donald Trump in the United States,” he said.

“I think there's still grace for him, even if, past this deadline, that people [will] still have a view that this is one of the most impossible tasks to do, and are willing to show some forgiveness.”

Conservative strategist Cole Hogan told The Hill Times that “the Trump issue” will likely be alive for as long as Trump is president, and could possibly remain as major conversation point even after he is gone.

“Even if there isn't a measurable note of success in terms of negotiating a deal with Donald Trump and the United States, I think that the Quebec and Ontario boomer-Liberal support base more or less says, ‘Oh well, Trump's crazy. No one could get a deal with this guy,’ and they just trust the Liberals more on this issue by an outsized number. That makes it difficult for the Conservatives to compete with them on that,” said Hogan.

“The framing around this from a lot of Liberals seems to be, ‘Now, the deal isn't worth the paper it's written on because Trump will just reneg on any deal he gets,’ and yes, that's true, but the longer that Trump stays in the forefront of Canadian media, the more that is an issue that is owned by the Liberals,” he added.

When asked how Poilievre and the Conservatives might gain ground in terms of trust to address policy issues, Hogan said it would be a matter of the party shifting to issues on which they are already trusted more than the Liberals.

“Liberals are able to bring up the degree to which they're trusted by the public on other issues by framing those other issues in the frame of Donald Trump,” said Hogan.

“Cost of living, the economy, immigration, crime, public safety. Start with the issues that might not be top of mind for Canadians—although the cost of living is always up top. Talk about those issues. Demonstrate some proficiency in talking about those issues, and just get some reps in where people can see you leading on the issues that they already trust you on, then that can help boost up your numbers in other areas.”

jcnockaert@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times