Canada is banking on our banker-prime minister
HALIFAX—Donald Trump is the master of the dumb public declaration.
The United States president’s pronouncements on a range of hugely consequential public issues are frequently fact-free, boastful in a school-yard sort of way, undiplomatic, and needlessly incendiary.
A few examples.
Trump claims that election fraud is rampant in the U.S. Every study on that issue has found the opposite. When asked by reporters this past May if he would send Immigration and Customs Enforcement Officers or National Guard members to polling locations during this fall’s midterm elections, he said he would do “anything necessary” to ensure “honest” elections—even though federal law prohibits this in nearly all circumstances.
Trump says vaccines cause serious harm, even death, and has cut them back. Scientists say vaccines have saved hundreds of thousands of lives, and that children will die without them.
Trump says he controls the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran counters that the vital waterway remains closed to American and Israeli shipping.
And finally this beauty: According to Trumpty-Dumpty, Canada wouldn’t exist without the U.S. Not only that, Canada does not have anything that America needs.
In Trump’s mind, Canada is merely America’s backyard, and a treasure trove of resources that are there for the taking. On the economic side, we are hopelessly dependent on the U.S.—a vassal with nowhere else to turn—or so the president says.
At one level, Trump’s inanity is laughable, the stuff of sketch-comedy show Saturday Night Live. But for Canada, it is no laughing matter. As the relationship between Canada and the U.S. goes flatter than a beer left out on the patio overnight, Trump has to be dealt with.
Canadians are getting daily evidence that they can bank on the banker—Prime Minister Mark Carney—to navigate what remains of Trump’s second term without striking an iceberg.
Consider how Carney has dealt with Trump’s illegal and punitive tariffs. Those in Washington, D.C., who thought Ottawa would meekly fold in the face of Trump’s economic warfare, that we would pay up and shut up, have received a rude awakening. Carney did exactly what the U.S. warned Canada and other countries not to do, which was retaliate with counter-tariffs.
Carney turned the tables and has made clear to the U.S. president that if Trump’s tariffs do go into effect on Aug. 19, Canadians won’t be the only ones feeling the pain. As a result of Carney’s spine, corporate interests in the U.S. are now putting pressure on Trump not to proceed with his tariff war.
While it is true Trump could quite easily ignore their pressure, it would not be without pain for the president. These corporations are the same outfits that contributed millions of dollars to Trump’s political campaigns. Money being the mother’s milk of politics, the GOP could suffer the consequences if Trump were to ignore a crucial part of his donor base and stick with the tariffs.
In a pragmatic and timely way, Carney also kicked the props out from another Trumpian misconception—that this country had nowhere else to go if the relationship with the U.S. crumbled. Carney hit the road in a search for new trading partners who might prove more reliable than Trump’s America.
Carney soon proved that what Canada has on offer is indeed attractive to a lot of countries. This country’s aluminum exports to Europe have surged in the wake of Trump’s tariff policy. That proves that there are other takers for our exports..
It should also make Americans stop and think. Since Canada supplies more than half of America’s aluminum, can it really afford to watch such a vital export go elsewhere just because Trump has decided to play economic hardball with an old friend?
Carney’s wheeling and dealing outside of the American connection hasn’t stopped with Europe. He has also closed huge deals with the world’s most populous countries: India and China.
In addition to his diversification of Canada’s international trading partners, Carney has sent another strong message to Trump: the prime minister meant exactly what he said when he announced that the old rules-based order led by the U.S. for 80 years was over.
Change was needed, and Carney meant to provide it. His government announced a massive $1-trillion energy independence strategy for Canada. It features nuclear expansion and an enormous east-west national electricity grid.
As one report put it, the days of this country begging the U.S. for “exemptions” in trade matters is over. Canadians are building their own “sandbox.” In doing so, some believe that Canada is changing the balance of power in North America.
As a theory, that is both fascinating and unprovable at this time. Make no mistake about it. A belligerent and vengeful Trump still has plenty of ways to inflict pain on us. The question is, will he actually do it?
In the short term, that really comes down to two things: Will Trump go through with his Aug. 19 tariff plan, or take the TACO—the insulting term to characterize Trump’s tendency to “always chicken out"—route, and delay or cancel them?
Secondly, will Trump try to impose a one-sided, bad deal in the negotiations to renew the Canada-U.S.-Mexico free trade deal?
Trump has more wiggle room on the tariff decision. Under the right reciprocal terms, he could opt, for example, to significantly reduce the size of the tariffs. The possibility of using this option as a negotiating tactic could be why they were set so high in the first place.
On CUSMA, Trump has put himself in a tougher position. He has said on multiple occasions that the deal is so bad, he would rather not have one at all. He claims that the “nasty” Canadians have been taking advantage of the U.S. for decades. In classic Trumpian fashion, he has produced zero evidence to back up his “exploited America” fable.
It would have been tempting under the circumstances for Carney to roll over when faced with Trump’s tariff threats and the prospect of a seriously diminished CUSMA deal.
Carney has not done so. Carney has firmly made it clear that he would not commit to changes to CUSMA that would be bad for Canada. No deal is better than a bad deal.
Amen.
Michael Harris is an award-winning author and journalist.
The Hill Times